It seems like the US financial crisis is still escalating and the turmoil will persist for a while before settling. I can imagine the anxiety level of financial analysts reaching new highs with each financial story unveiling more worrying news.
Despite the fear and chaos, the financial market will recover over time. Looking back at history, in 1973-74, the S&P lost 45% in 22 months. In 1987, Dow Jones crashed 22% in a single day. That was my first week as an intern at Lehman Brothers. What a warm welcome! In 1997, the Asian currency crisis left four countries (Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and South Korea) on the brink of bankruptcy. I was an equity analyst in Bangkok at the time, right at the epicenter of the meltdown!
Long story short, I believe the US and overseas financial markets will evolve and recover from the current crisis. But at this point, many of you in the financial industry are probably facing a grim career outlook over the next 12-18 months.
What can you do in the meantime? Make lemon out of lemonade! Learn from history, about the Asian financial crises, the bailout programs from their governments and from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). What opportunities were created during the crisis? How did their financial industry reinvent itself? I remembered those finance companies that shifted gear to debt restructuring and distressed assets disposal did well. Those which upgraded to commercial bank status also survived.
How do you think that US financial market is going to evolve? What opportunities would open up for you? Are any of these possible opportunities in line with your long-term career goals?
There is a tendency for us to think that the road to success from here to there is a straight line. Reality is, it is full of twists and turns like this drawing here. Don’t be depressed by the sight of it. You’ll never know whom you’ll meet on the way. You might meet your future employer at point A, learn a new skill that propel your career to new heights at point B, meet the love of you life at point C and then live happily ever after!
I think the consensus is, as you say, that the economy, and in particular as reflected in the securities markets, will rebound in about two years. The key, and I think something we should all be talking about, is JOBS. We know consumer purchasing power is the answer, and a decrease in the unemployment rate is the only indication we are moving in that direction. Part of the Billions in bailout money might well be spent creating jobs directly- increases in school funding for new teachers is a good way- along with increases to the funding of other budgets for job creation or more likely, for the recapture of jobs lost due to budget cuts- police officers, for example.
toddrmcallister